While much of the world’s attention is focused on the upcoming U.S. election on November 5, another significant political event will unfold across the Pacific in the tiny island nation of Palau. A tourism-dependent microstate with just over 16,000 registered voters, Palau will elect a new president, Senate, and House of Delegates on the same day. Although the stakes may seem modest compared to those of the United States, the outcome of this election could have considerable geopolitical implications, particularly for the enduring diplomatic struggle between Taiwan and China.
Palau is one of the few countries that still maintains diplomatic ties with Taiwan. In recent years, China has intensified efforts to sway countries away from recognizing Taiwan, a self-ruled island that Beijing claims as its territory. Palau’s election, like other political shifts in the Pacific, presents an opportunity for China to gain influence at the expense of Taiwan, reshaping the region’s balance of power.
The Pacific Islands have become an arena for great-power competition, with China and Taiwan vying for diplomatic recognition. This tug-of-war has played out in the region over the past decade, with countries such as the Solomon Islands and Kiribati switching allegiance from Taiwan to China. Most recently, in January 2024, Nauru flipped its recognition to China, just days after Taiwan’s presidential election.
Palau remains one of Taiwan’s few steadfast allies, making its election an event of interest not only to regional players but also to Beijing and Taipei. Elections in the Pacific often lead to a reshuffling of political alliances, giving Beijing a chance to lure another ally away from Taiwan. The case of Tuvalu, which faced speculation earlier this year that it might switch sides, underscores how Pacific nations frequently find themselves navigating between competing diplomatic pressures from China and Taiwan.
Palau’s political system closely mirrors that of the United States, reflecting its historical ties with Washington. Palau was under U.S. administration after World War II and continues to have strong ties with the U.S. under the Compact of Free Association, a unique relationship that allows Palau access to U.S. economic assistance and military protection in exchange for granting the U.S. certain strategic privileges.
Like the U.S., Palau has a presidential system, where the president is elected directly every four years. However, there are significant differences. Palau has no political parties, and its elections are not encumbered by an Electoral College. Instead, political alliances are often shaped by clan and kinship ties, with candidates seeking support through personal connections rather than ideological platforms.
This year’s presidential race pits two seasoned politicians against each other: the incumbent, Surangel Whipps Jr., and the challenger, Tommy Remengesau Jr. If either were facing a less formidable opponent, victory would likely be assured. However, political insiders consider the race too close to call, adding suspense to an already critical election. Notably, both candidates share a close personal relationship—they are brothers-in-law—a fact that has infused the campaign with an unusual degree of politeness, including gentle yard signs with messages like “Please consider…” and “Moving forward together.”
Despite the cordial atmosphere, there is one issue that has the potential to create a rift between Whipps and Remengesau: their respective stances on China and Taiwan.
The China-Taiwan conflict has cast a long shadow over Palau’s election. While Whipps is perceived as a pro-Taiwan candidate who values Palau’s long-standing relationship with the United States, Remengesau has come under scrutiny for his potential leanings toward Beijing. In an article by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), Remengesau was labeled as a “pro-Beijing” candidate who might be open to switching Palau’s diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China—a move that would have significant geopolitical ramifications.
However, Remengesau has vehemently denied these claims, expressing anger at the characterization. In Palau, where political differences are rarely heated, such accusations are rare, and many locals have dismissed the notion that Remengesau is in China’s camp. While Remengesau has espoused the Pacific Islands’ often-repeated mantra of being “friends to all, enemies to none,” this sentiment is far from being an endorsement of Beijing.
In fact, the portrayal of Remengesau as pro-China has been met with skepticism from Palau’s media and political elites. Tia Belau, the nation’s most prominent newspaper, was described by ASPI as “China-sympathetic,” but the outlet’s track record tells a different story. During the pandemic, Tia Belau published press releases from Taiwan’s embassy without alteration, underscoring its balanced approach to foreign influence.
Still, concerns about Beijing’s growing reach in Palau are not entirely unfounded. The Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) has documented attempts by Chinese business interests to influence Palau’s media and elites. One such case involved Hunter Tian, a local businessman with deep connections to China’s military and secret police. Tian was implicated in efforts to form a media conglomerate with Moses Uludong, the owner of Tia Belau, which would have given China significant influence over Palauan media. Though the deal fell through due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the episode illustrated China’s persistent efforts to extend its soft power in the Pacific.
China’s growing presence in Palau goes beyond media manipulation. Representatives like Tian continue to cultivate relationships with Palau’s elites, and evidence suggests that some officials may be vulnerable to outside influence. Recently, Palau’s immigration chief resigned after being accused of using his position for personal gain, while the speaker of the House of Delegates was ordered to pay $3.5 million in fines for a tax violation related to a lease with a Chinese national.
These scandals, combined with the growing presence of Chinese criminal organizations involved in drug trafficking and scam operations in Palau, have soured public perceptions of China. Rather than enhancing China’s reputation, these activities have fueled distrust among ordinary Palauans. The influx of Chinese triads and illegal operations further complicates Beijing’s image, weakening its soft power appeal in Palau and casting doubt on the likelihood of a diplomatic switch.
Given the complexities surrounding Palau’s relations with both the U.S. and Taiwan, it seems unlikely that Palau will dramatically shift its allegiance to China in the immediate aftermath of the November election. While China’s influence operations continue, Palau remains deeply tied to the U.S. through its Compact of Free Association, and its people maintain a generally positive view of Taiwan.
Whipps’ close alignment with U.S. interests, combined with the existing skepticism surrounding China’s influence, suggests that a diplomatic flip is not on the horizon. While Remengesau’s more neutral stance may create speculation, his commitment to maintaining relationships with both Taiwan and China does not appear to translate into an imminent switch in recognition.
The U.S. has played a significant role in shaping the political landscape of the Pacific Islands, and Palau is no exception. As part of its broader strategy to counter Chinese influence in the region, Washington has increased its diplomatic and military engagement with Pacific nations. Palau’s strategic location near key shipping routes and military zones gives it added importance in the U.S.-China rivalry, and the U.S. is likely to continue its efforts to keep Palau in its orbit.
However, overly aggressive U.S. influence operations can sometimes backfire, as evidenced by a failed effort in the Philippines during the pandemic. In the tightly knit Pacific Island communities, secrets do not stay hidden for long, and heavy-handed tactics can drive nations into the arms of Beijing. The key for Washington will be to strike the right balance, ensuring Palau remains a reliable partner while respecting its sovereignty and independence.
While Palau’s November 5 election may seem like a small-scale event, it represents a key moment in the broader geopolitical contest between China, Taiwan, and the United States. The outcome will not only determine the next leader of Palau but also signal whether Beijing’s influence in the Pacific will continue to expand.
Although there is no clear indication that Palau will flip its diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China, the election highlights the precarious position Pacific nations find themselves in as they navigate competing pressures from the region’s two largest powers. Palau’s decision will serve as a bellwether for the future of Taiwan’s diplomatic ties in the Pacific and offer insights into China’s evolving strategy in the region.
